Tel Aviv (AFP) - As the first exit polls arrived in Israel’s election late Tuesday, opposition supporters breathed a sigh of relief. But as a long night set in, nervousness grew on both sides in a tight race that is pivotal for the country.

At exactly 10:00 pm (2000 GMT), exit polls showed a narrow edge for the bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and political novice seeking to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving leader.

“I feel better,” Kalanit Sharon, 37, told AFP as cheers erupted in the Tel Aviv hall packed with backers of Eisenkot and his Yashar party.

But as the night wore on, exit polls shifted, with major television networks putting the two sides on equal footing – with Arab lists, which could become kingmakers, making strong gains.

The vote, the first general election since Hamas’s unprecedented October 7, 2023 attack, drew 77.7 percent turnout, the highest since 1999.

For Netanyahu, blamed by opponents for the security failures that led to the attack, and for refusing to establish an independent commission of inquiry, his political survival was at stake.

“Three years ago, the government abandoned us,” said Ohad Ben Ami, a former hostage taken to the Gaza Strip by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

“An Israeli citizen should never have spent a year and a half in Hamas tunnels when deals (with Hamas) were on the table” to secure the hostages’ release, he said at Eisenkot’s event.

Another supporter of the former general, Noa Ayal, a 31-year-old soldier who said she had completed “more than 360 days of reserve duty”, said she had been “waiting for this change for so long”.

“I have a lot of hope, and if Gadi doesn’t become prime minister, it will undoubtedly be very difficult.”

Eisenkot – who swapped his usual plain black shirt for a suit and tie – promised to work swiftly to form a government. But it will be no small feat with neither side appearing to have secured the votes.

Yaheli Lifshitz, a 23-year-old student, acknowledged the challenge.

“To form a new government, they’ll have to break with established rules and norms and build alliances that have never existed before,” he said.

-‘We have to wait’ -

Netanyahu kept supporters waiting past 3:00 am in a Jerusalem convention centre. Known for his long, passionate speeches, Netanyahu was unusually brief, vowing to form a government but stopping short of directly claiming victory.

Supporters waited by watching on a giant screen a video montage celebrating the prime minister, showing hugs with US President Donald Trump alongside footage of military strikes from the assorted wars he has led since the Hamas attack.

Ari Marx, holding a large sign bearing the prime minister’s image, said he was not “scared” of the results or of another war with Iran, which Netanyahu has threatened.

“Either Bibi is going to win or there’s going to be a new election,” he said, using Netanyahu’s nickname, doubting anyone else could form a government.

Elie Pieprz, 53, expected results to keep shifting towards Netanyahu and his Likud Party.

“I’m very optimistic. I feel the prime minister has performed better than some of the pre-campaign polls suggested.”

Asked what might happen if the opposition ultimately prevailed, Pieprz called for a coalition that would still include Likud, citing the conflict with Iran and the need to maintain strong ties with Washington.

“Trying to change course in the middle of the journey is not a good idea,” he said.

Anat Margolin, a 49-year-old engineer, was less confident.

“I don’t know what to hope for because throughout the day you could feel the results were going to be unpredictable, that this wasn’t what we’d prepared for,” she said.

A regular viewer of Channel 14, an outlet supportive of Netanyahu, Margolin said she had mostly heard predictions pointing to a victory for her candidate, not to a possible opposition win.

“We weren’t hearing about that possibility,” she said.